How Trump tariffs will affect commercial vehicle aftermarket

Historic tariffs and major trade agreements are poised to disrupt commercial vehicle manufacturing in the U.S.

Ana Meuwissen, SVP of government affairs for the Motor & Equipment Manufacturers Association, outlined the rising key issues and officials at MEMA’s Heavy-Duty Aftermarket Dialogue conference. The topmost issues that Meuwissen outlined were trade and tariffs, as Trump’s possible tariff scenarios and their effects are a major concern for MEMA’s membership.

“This is the number one issue that we in the MEMA Government Affairs Office have been hearing about from member companies across the whole span of the industry,” Meuwissen said.

The latest trade agreement between North American countries also faces major revisions in mid-2026, and MEMA is hard at work in facilitating negotiations with industry stakeholders.

Potential tariff scenarios

Congress is the nation’s main tariff authority, but the president has some power to enact tariffs. The exact limits of the president’s tariff authority are unclear, but Trump nevertheless was vocal in his desire to impose historic tariffs on U.S. trade partners.

Meuwissen pointed to three key plans that Trump articulated while campaigning:

Further tariffs on imports from China
Potential 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, “specifically to compel action on immigration, border security, and federal concerns,” she said, and
A universal tariff to all imports, ranging from 10% to 20%.

Which avenue of tariff authority Trump chooses will determine how and when the tariffs can be imposed, Meuwissen continued.

The president’s tariff authority could come from several laws: Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962; Section 122, 201, and 301 of the Trade Act of 1974; Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930; Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930; and the International Emergency Economic Power Act of 1977, to name a few. Some of the tariff statutes require fixed maximum severities, such as a 15% limit or 150-day duration.

HDAD MEMA Government Affairs Update Tariffs

“Trump actually threatened to impose tariffs on Mexico in 2019 under IEEPA,” Meuwissen said. “But this threat was subsequently removed after bilateral negotiations between the two countries.”

Trump’s treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, shared his attitude toward tariffs during his Senate hearing. When testifying before the Senate, Bessent outlined tariffs as a methodology for three potential outcomes:

As a means to remedy unfair trade practices,
As a revenue raiser for the United States, and
As a negotiating tactic for non-tariff issues

“I think that gives us some insight into the thinking of the president’s senior advisors coming in,” Meuwissen said.

Trade with Mexico, Canada

The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement is another of MEMA’s top priorities. The trade deal has major influence on the U.S. economy broadly and the automotive industry specifically.

USMCA is a renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement under Trump’s first term. The renegotiation brought significant changes for the automotive and commercial vehicle sectors.

“This is the most stringent automotive and commercial vehicle agreement that we have on the books in the United States,” Meuwissen said. “We basically had a complete rewrite of our chapter of the agreement, with brand new rules and requirements being put in that impact the sector every day.”

The agreement entered force on July 2020 and has a 16-year timeline. Different vehicle classes covered by the agreement have multi-year phase-in periods. Passenger car and light-duty vehicles had a three-year phase-in period, which ended in 2023. The phase-in period for commercial vehicles is seven years and concludes in 2027.

Another significant change for the agreement is a review mechanism. Review for USMCA is scheduled for July 2026, where the three countries will discuss how the agreement is working and make changes. However, the U.S. has never experienced a trade agreement review process like this, so the outcome of the review is uncertain.

“Honestly, we don’t know how the reviews can be managed,” Meuwissen said. “We’ve never done one like this before; there’s no prototype for this type of review.”

Some terms that the countries might renegotiate include restricting Chinese investment in Mexico, stricter regional value content requirements, and increased duty rates to compel compliance.

MEMA has a USMCA working group, started in 2024, and is meeting with officials to facilitate negotiations.

“We want to make sure that there are not dramatic additional changes to the agreement while the industry is still working through that phase-in period,” Meuwissen said.

Summary

Tariff Uncertainty and Potential Impact – The commercial vehicle manufacturing industry in the U.S. could be disrupted by historic tariff proposals, with Trump’s possible plans including increased tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, as well as a universal import tariff.
Trade Agreement Revisions – The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), a major trade deal impacting the automotive and commercial vehicle sectors, faces a critical review in mid-2026.
Tariffs as a Policy Tool: Trump’s former treasury secretary indicated that tariffs could serve as a remedy for unfair trade practices, a revenue source, or leverage for non-trade negotiations.