Toward the end of each year, fleet industry experts make predictions for the next year’s trends. One could say it’s become a bit of a trend itself. Generally, these trend lists provide a useful overview of what to expect in the next year and can help fleet stakeholders better anticipate and plan for potential challenges.
But certain factors can influence how accurate these predictions are. Because many trends are largely influenced by markets related to the industry, those heavily influenced by economic and policy pressure are less likely to be accurate. Or, rather, they are more subject to change.
Let’s take a look at some of these predictions and how close expectations and reality were for 2024.
Surge of EV adoption
It’s not really a prediction to say commercial electric vehicles (CEVs) would increase in 2024. When you’re starting at a relatively small number, any increase in year-over-year sales growth will seem impressive on a chart. But many are waiting for that explosive YOY growth to show EVs have arrived.
Did that happen this past year?
It depends on who you ask, so I will abstain from rating this prediction. But here’s a quick recap of the very complicated issue. In 2021 and 2022 EV adoption was lower than expected and EV sales fell short of the market forecast, while 2023 saw an all-time high in these categories with that momentum continuing — albeit at a slower rate — in 2024.
This outcome shouldn’t be surprising, though, as the pandemic significantly impacted the economy throughout 2021 and 2022, and fleets were already having asset acquisition challenges due to supply issues. The jump in EV sales and adoption in 2023 likely stems most heavily from the Inflation Reduction Act, which was passed mid-2022 and incentivizes EV manufacturing and sales, in turn affecting market growth and demand.
Regulations have also acted like a thumb on the scale. California has passed strict mandates to push zero-emission vehicles in trucking via the Advanced Clean Trucks regulation, with other states, such as Oregon, following suit. Federal mandates limiting internal combustion engines are slated to take effect in a few years with the EPA’s GHG3 final rule.
On the other side, the trucking industry has pushed back on the proposed regulations. States have also taken to the courts to try and delay regulatory action that would limit fleets’ ability to buy new ICE trucks.
Read more: ‘Destined to fail’: Trucking leaders, Congress question GHG3 final rule
With that in mind, if we look toward 2025, we should consider the new incoming administration and its proposed sustainability policies. While it is unclear if President-elect Trump will do away with EV incentives, he has been vocal about rolling back the Biden administration’s stringent emissions regulations, which can be beneficial for fleets that aren’t quite ready to incorporate electric assets. It could also lead to slower—yet more mindful—fleet adoption.
Okay, now we’ve covered the EV trend, let’s take a look at a few of 2024’s other top trends and see how they panned out.
The rise of predictive maintenance
The concept — and practice — of predictive maintenance has been growing in popularity over the past couple of years and made numerous 2024 trend lists. (I even wrote about how Vehicle Maintenance Reporting Standards can empower predictive maintenance in late 2023.)
This may be due in large part to fleets being able to access more robust asset data using fleet management and optimization platforms. Having comprehensive insights into asset inspection and service histories plays a major role in predictive maintenance, as it allows fleets to surface patterns in asset utilization, recurring asset issues, and repeat inspection item issues.
Read more: How to unleash the power of predictive maintenance
Recognizing these patterns helps fleets anticipate issues before they happen to reduce unscheduled downtime and asset breakdown events. While proactively addressing issues before they escalate can cost more on the front end, it saves a good chunk of change in the long run.
Recent Fleetio user surveys found 60% of fleets reported fewer preventable breakdowns and 62% reported less unplanned downtime when relying on predictive maintenance practices, both of which led to a reduction in fleet operating expenses.
● Prediction accuracy score: 8/10
Prediction for 2025: As fleet management technologies increase in scale and capabilities, predictive maintenance is likely to become more common in the industry. It feels safe to say that 2025 may see potential growth in predictive maintenance practices among fleets.
Increased use of automation
Automation was another top trend for 2024, both in regard to operational automation and autonomous vehicles (AVs). As fleet management technologies continue to add automation capabilities, some fleets have gotten creative and found workarounds that allow them to automate processes not currently addressed in the system they’re using, which signals a growing interest in this functionality.
On the AV front, 2024 saw some exciting gains addressing some of the technology’s biggest hindrances: safety, investment, and scale. In October, Gatik AI Inc., a leader in autonomous middle mile logistics, unveiled “the scope of a comprehensive safety case assessment for its Freight-Only operations (deliveries without a human driver onboard) across North America.” The company noted that its safety “assessment will encompass over 700 identified safety portfolios [that] must be completed and closed before [it] can achieve Freight-Only operations at scale.”
Investments are likewise gaining traction. In 2024, “Waymo's parent Alphabet said it would invest up to US $5 billion into the startup,” according to S&P Global. “Waymo operates a fleet of nearly 800 self-driving vehicles in California and more in Phoenix [...] and it is the only one collecting fares today.”
● Prediction accuracy score: 6/10
Prediction for 2025: Based on the accomplishments made in 2024, 2025 could prove the year of substantial increases in automation — both in fleet management and on the road. Many fleets have been working to up their process automation game using fleet management technologies to automate things like work orders, inventory resupply, reports, etc., which can help save time while better ensuring critical issues and duties are addressed. For AVs, we’re seeing major strides in addressing safety and securing investments, but we’re not likely to see wider use of fully-autonomous vehicles until the issue of scale is handled, which will likely start in the latter part of the decade.
Economic instability
Due to the economic volatility in late 2023 stemming in part from global conflicts, it’s no surprise economic instability was predicted for 2024, and overall fleet operating costs did, in fact, increase across the board starting as early as Q1 2024. The Federal Reserve raised its main interest rate, which held at 5.3% from July 2023 to September 2024, to help slow inflation and get cost fluctuation somewhat under control. In the past several months, however, central banks around the world have been cutting interest rates, signaling an easing of inflation, and after the election, the Fed cut rates for a second time; it now sits at roughly 4.5 to 4.75%.
● Prediction accuracy: 10/10
2025 prediction: While the incoming administration has its sights set on tackling inflation, the state of the economy could get worse before it gets better. That said, the multi-pronged approach of promoting peace, cutting government spending, and encouraging U.S. manufacturing can stimulate economic growth that should result in lower cost of living and lower cost of business.
All in all, 2024 trend predictions weren’t terribly off base. Assessing the previous year’s trends and how they panned out, though, paints a better picture of what might come to pass in the coming year, as well as what factors can affect trends. Similar to predictive maintenance, the more robust your historical insights, the more effectively you can prepare for your fleet’s future success and, as far as your fleet operation, using a fleet management solution or optimization platform can greatly improve those insights.
