Editor’s Note: Due to the unprecedented global events caused by the COVID-19 novel coronavirus outbreak, Bob Dieli submitted this updated piece close to press. We understand the global pandemic situation is fluid and news changes daily.
A few weeks ago the Fleet Maintenance editors asked us to prepare a piece on what we thought the current and prospective conditions of the trucking industry would be in April. Needless to say, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic was not part of that piece.
The size, speed, and scope of the effects of the pandemic exceed the predictive ability of any honest analyst. Since we would like to count ourselves in that group, we are not going to make any forecasts here. But we will tell you what we are doing to gain an understanding of the situation so that we can begin the analysis that will facilitate the process of recovery.
Considerations to recover
The first priority is to listen to the experts. In this case, the experts are epidemiologists who study these health matters. No significant progress was made on the construction of the Panama Canal until management listened to the epidemiologists who figured out that mosquitos were the vector of contagion for the yellow fever that was killing the workforce. Once the disease was controlled, the rest of the engineering problems could be solved.
Next, remember that this is a natural disaster and not a financial event. Our first response, and responsibility, is to deal with the human aspects of the event. The financials will take care of themselves later.
We should be prepared for the recovery from this event to take longer than we think it might. While we will be able to reopen our offices, restaurants, and other businesses quickly, refilling the supply chain – which have been stretched in ways we did not anticipate – is going to take time.
Finally, let’s not forget the crucial role the trucking industry will play in all aspects of this effort. While I can work remotely to rewrite this piece, the soup that I am going to have for lunch today had to spend some time in a truck.
So, to all those who are moving the goods and to those who help them do that, thank you.
Stay safe.
With a long career managing portfolios and coordinating domestic economic forecasting programs, Robert Dieli began RDLB, Inc. in 2001. In this role, Dieli serves as an advisor to many firms in the truck, consulting, and financial services sectors. He is also an economist with MacKay & Company.
