[This is an opinion piece from the editor-in-chief of Fleet Maintenance.]
With the inauguration finally done, Donald Trump assumed the presidency again Monday, and immediately declared, “The golden age of America begins right now.”
President Trump put his pen straight to work. He signed a record 26 executive orders on day one, many rescinding policies of his predecessor, Joe Biden. How these next four years will play out is anybody’s guess (though those saying “uneventful” should perhaps schedule a CT scan), but we can certainly hope the new administration can help usher in a golden age for trucking, or at least get out of the way so fleets can do it themselves.
During his confirmation hearing Sean Duffy, the presumptive secretary of transportation, did say, “Together with President Trump, this committee, and the entire DOT team, we will usher in a golden age of travel.”
Duffy went on to promise to “reduce the red tape that slows critical infrastructure projects” and wisely spend tax dollars. That’s a vast departure from the previous leadership, whose signature legislation, the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law were focused on allocating billions to build things like electric vehicle chargers and a nationwide broadband network, (neither of which they did well), as opposed to fixing the economy, roads, or bridges.
There’s a lot still broken in America, and being the backbone of the economy, a strong trucking sector can go a long way to helping the nation heal. So without further ado, here are a few major areas Trump’s actions will impact trucking.
Economy and tariffs
It’s no secret that trucking has been in the throes of a severe freight recession for several years.
But things are looking up.
According to Shannon O'Brien, sr. director, programming and strategy, MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers, freight will see “a turnaround in the back half of the year, maybe as early as May.”
However, much of this could depend on how Trump uses his tariff power. He plans to establish an External Revenue Service, as he noted in his inaugural address, to handle tariffs, which are already in place for China and Mexico, and Canada could see 25% tariffs if they don’t agree to Trump’s demands on things like border security. These could go into effect Feb. 1. He also suggested the U.S. may install a universal tariff.
Plenty of economists have a negative view of tariffs as an economic generator because the tariffs are passed onto the consumer.
For trucking, some OEs have switched to a reshoring and/or nearshoring strategy and have started to make parts on this continent.
“In the last four or five years we’ve been trying to move as much of our component supply back to North America as possible,” said Jeffery Porter, president and CEO of Velvac Inc., a maker of medium- and heavy-duty truck, bus, and RV parts back in 2023, as a response to the supply chain disaster spurred by COVID.
Also in 2023, Rob Phillips, CEO of Phillips Industries and CEO and founder of Phillips Connect, noted his company was “very bullish on Mexico.
“I’m a huge fan of the workers, the level of experience from the industry perspective,” he added.
As Phillips is a major supplier, a 25% tariff on Mexico would likely increase prices. Several truck and auto OEMs, such as Daimler Truck North America and International Motors, also export trucks from Mexico to the U.S. market and 25% tariffs on a $150,000 truck is a substantial. But manufacturers can also request exclusions and Trump could also be posturing. We will just have to wait and see.
Energy
To symbolically reignite American pride (or perhaps to troll geographers), he restored Denali as Mount McKinley, while another EO was signed to unlock Alaska’s natural resources to spur the economy. This specifically would expedite the oil and gas leasing permit process, enabling the industry to “drill, baby, drill,” and potentially establish a Liquid Natural Gas pipeline. Alaska has the third-highest volume of proved natural gas reserves at 100 trillion cubic feet and the fourth-largest crude oil reserves at 3.2 billion barrels (as of 2022), according to the EIA.
The former is unlikely to impact trucking (unless GMC is forced to rename its luxury trim), though opening up the flow of Alaska’s oil and gas should help protect form future price shocks. Another executive order, “Unleashing America’s Energy,” extended the “drill, baby, drill” policy to the rest of the nation, including the newly named Gulf of America’s outer continental shelf. Fuel costs typically account for nearly a third of fleets’ operating budgets, so protecting against another price like the one in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, will indeed help fleets from unexpected costs.
This also hedges against future energy supply issues expected as demand increases. During the confirmation hearing for Trump’s pick for EPA Administrator, Lee Zeldin, Sen. Shelly Capito of West Virginia noted that energy costs rose 23% over Biden’s term. Due to the rise in artificial intelligence and data centers in general, U.S. utilities may need to generate between 7 and 26% more energy in 2028 versus 2023, according to analysts at Bain. If trucking truly wants to scale electric vehicles, they will need the juice to do so. Even a small heavy-duty truck terminal would consume 1 megawatt per day, equal to the Empire State Building.
For now wind and solar won’t cut it, and building new nuclear plants takes time, so ensuring America has enough energy to operate normally while the private sector advances new technologies will be crucial in the latter half of the decade.
Environmental regulations
The E.O. on American energy also directed a more grounded approach to energy regulations. Zeldin seemed to be on the same page during his hearing, advocating for partnerships with the private sector “that promote common-sense smart regulation.” Zeldin is a believer in climate change, though if confirmed, he vowed to protect both the environment and the economy.
The environment was the previous administration’s sacred cow, and Biden’s EPA, through its actions, showed it cared little for the economic burden trucking would carry. The EPA simultaneously mandated heavy-duty engines reduce NOx levels by 80% for the 2027 model year and start to phase out diesel engines altogether through the GHG3 final rule. Ready or not, zero-emission vehicles would comprise a larger portion of U.S. fleets every year. Even sustainably minded fleets rejected this strategy, pleading to Congress to slow down.
On the state level, California and crony states adopted the Advanced Clean Fleet (ACF) rule that would mandate electric trucks. Due to a lack of supporting infrastructure, this and the complementary Advanced Clean Trucks rule were “destined to fail,” Taki Darakos, Pitt Ohio VP of maintenance, testified to Congress.
He was right, as last week the California Air Resources Board withdrew a request for the EPA waiver that would enable the state to enforce the EV mandate.
“The trucking industry and American consumers can breathe a collective sigh of relief today after CARB finally bowed to reality and shelved its job-killing Advanced Clean Fleets regulation," said American Trucking Associations president and CEO Chris Spear. “We look forward to President-elect Trump rescinding CARB’s remaining unworkable waivers and new leadership at EPA restoring a common-sense approach that balances environmental progress with economic viability.”
As he had many times during his campaign, Trump vowed to kill any EV mandate.
But what about the NOX rule set for MY 2027? Could removing that also unburden fleets from what has been a stressful past year planning pre-buy strategies? The NOx rule could increase new heavy-duty truck costs by $30,000 because of changes to the emissions systems, so to avoid that initial cost on unproven technology, fleets would buy more trucks in 2025 and 2026 and abstain in 2027. But OEM capacity may not be large enough for everyone to do that.
On a media call with MEMA executives last week, Ana Meuwissen, senior vice president, government affairs said, “I don’t think it’s impossible… [The Trump administration] could still seek to make modifications to the rule.”
MEMA President Paul McCarthy equated this start to Trump’s second term as the regulatory version of Schrodinger’s cat, where these rules could be either dead or alive until the box is opened.
“We're trying to be prepared for multiple potential outcomes and be able to thrive, which is a really hard thing to do,” McCarthy said, due to the capital investments already spent on developing the new emissions technology.
New regulations are also on hold as Trump signed an E.O. to freeze all proposed regulations pending a review, which will not affect the emissions rules, but Trump’s anti-regulatory stance would likely slow down the speed limiter rule that was pushed back to May 2025. Many large fleets already limit their drivers’ top speed, and many in the industry, such as the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA), petitioned Trump to abandon the rule in a letter sent on Jan. 16.
By establishing a one-size-fits-all federal mandate restricting heavy-duty commercial motor vehicles to a speed separate from passenger vehicles, this regulation would create dangerous speed differentials between CMVs and other cars. Decades of highway research shows greater speed differentials increase interactions between truck drivers and other road users, and studies have consistently demonstrated that increasing interactions between vehicles directly increases the likelihood of crashes.
Is a golden age coming?
After living and breathing all things trucking for six years, I really hope a golden age is coming. The people who work in this industry have always made America great and they certainly have earned some boom times.
But it all depends on how much pushback Trump gets this time in office—and how he responds. Last time around, his opposition fought his every move and we got a struggling economy and several new wars to show for it.
Trump also did himself no favors with the people he placed around him. We can only hope he learned some lessons and humility from his derailed first term. His inaugural speech was vastly more positive than his first—he was prudent enough to wait until later in the day to insult ex-congressman Adam Kinzinger, calling him a “super cryer.”
If that’s not progress, I don’t know what is.
