A few days after Apollo 11 (allegedly) landed on the moon in July 1969, a couple of young fellas from Nebraska by the names of Danny Zager and Rick Evans topped the charts and stayed there for several weeks with a part psychedelic/part apocalyptic rock song called “In the Year 2525.”
Alas, Zager and Evans likely went too far in time with their predictions that spanned 10,000 years (though some are coming true now, like the ones about drugs, automation, and genetics). It was their only hit. These predictions about trucking maintenance, however, will all be for 2025. With any luck, the shorter timeframe means I’ll hit on at least a few.
Hydrogen’s hopium supply runs dry
There are clear warning signs about fuel cell trucks’ near-term viability in trucking. One is Donald Trump’s return to the White House. Will his EPA approve the waiver request (currently under review) needed to give CARB’s Advanced Clean Fleet mandate teeth? As Trump would say, “NO WAY!” Without it, drayage trucks in California aren’t compelled to go ZEV and a major potential market for fuel cell OEMs is off the table for several years. Meanwhile, the less expensive and relatively simpler BEV technology will continue to gain ground.
A bigger sign is that the most prominent fuel cell truck maker, Nikola, is turning its proponents into cynics. This summer, William Hall, the first trucker in California to get his hands on a Nikola FCEV shared with us how his first six months went. He admitted there was some occasional downtime, and that he had some problems getting access to the few hydrogen fueling stations around, but overall he felt pretty positive.
This fall, he shared on LinkedIn that he’s had to contend with battery failures and fuel cell shutdowns. Worse than that, he expressed he felt abandoned by the OEM. When I spoke with Hall (off-the-record, sadly) in early November, he hadn’t given up hope yet, but if the problems and lack of communication persist, it’s only a matter of time.
In their Q3 2024 earnings report, Nikola said they have enough cash to get through Q1 2025 and are trying to optimize their resources. Last week, Elektrek claimed via an anonymous "Nikola insider" that FCEV production was planning to shut down.
I reached out to Nikola and their spokesperson said the Coolidge, Arizona plant remained open (as of Dec. 17) and their business stance from the recent earnings call remains unchanged.
"We continue to manage allocations between producing fuel cells and remanufacturing BEVs to support the needs of our customers while meeting market expectations," the spokesperson replied.
After surviving founder Trevor Milton's scandals and FCEV orders pouring in this year, Nikola seemed like it would embody the mythical Phoenix that rose from the ashes. But given those BEVs infamously had to be recalled due to very real fire risk in 2023, and with the tank valve failure on Hall's hydrogen truck that has persisted for 11 months, Nikola could be clean trucking's Icarus, whose ambition was brought down to earth by both fire and water. The OEM is based in Phoenix, at least, so there's that.
Nikola isn't the only hydrogen player out there. Hyundai's Xcient fuel cell trucks have accrued 10 million miles in Switzerland since 2020 and are operating in California. And Hyzon is trying to fill a niche in the refuse sector. Daimler Truck and Volvo also are working on fuel cells, though those won't be seen in the U.S. for several years. Many have envisioned hydrogen as a dreamy alt-fuel, but the costs, complexity, and downtime have become, even for staunch backers like Hall, a "nightmare to say the least."
I do hope I'm wrong on this one, by the way.
No need for speed limiting
Trump’s hard stance on emissions regulations and rolling back perceived EV mandates will get a lot of attention, but I’m predicting one less-talked-about mandate will slow to a halt: the proposed federal speed limiter rule, which was delayed until May 2025.
Many fleets choose to implement the technology, but the industry is divided on capping all heavy truck speeds. Earl Adams, Jr., former FMSCA deputy administrator, noted that of the 15,600 letters sent in during the comment period, “I would say more than half to 60% were unique individual letters.
“That blew my mind,” he added, because for that comment volume, it’s usually due to a massive letter-writing campaign with the same language.
Given Trump’s anti-regulation agenda, look for this rule to have zero forward momentum.
AI and humans team up to fight downtime
AI has burst onto the telematics scene, gobbling up real-time and historical data from assets and spitting out predictions on future failures. At the same time, OEMs are moving towards customer service reps specializing in the art of uptime, analyzing telematics data and Diagnostic Trouble Codes to help individual customers identify service issues and where and when to get repairs. International calls them Uptime Advocates, while Volvo Trucks labels them Uptime Support Specialists.
Alone, AI-enabled predictive maintenance is good at sifting through data and making quick computations, but has some blind spots when it comes to operating in the real world. Adding an experienced human to the mix to handle all the things AI isn’t good at yet should be even better.
Volvo’s upgraded Blue Service Contract maintenance program, which includes AI-embedded Volvo Remote Diagnostics and the Uptime Specialists, is an early use case. Its bulldog brother Mack Trucks has followed with its Premium Service Contracts. Look for several similar solutions to follow next year.
Shops get serious about training and mentorship
This one I’m trying to will into existence. We routinely publish stat-filled stories on how training is falling short, which is not a good sign for the health of the sector or a shop’s turnover rate. For example, in a 2023 ASE survey, 55% of fleet technicians said they didn’t have adequate access to training. And WrenchWay's latest Voice of the Technican report found only 46% of diesel techs surveyed said they received adequate paid training from their shop.
That’s bonkers in 2024 considering the available tools at shops’ disposal. Several OEs offer online courses and are also willing to come to shops to do in-person training. And as our training Overachiever Joseph Russo noted, YouTube has several excellent channels ready to share theoretical and practical knowledge. But technicians have to want to learn; a boss can’t pry their eyes open Clockwork Orange-style and force them to watch. Managers and trainers can, however, instill that desire to learn and incentivize their hard work. Learning new technologies and ways to better troubleshoot and repair issues likely will take off-the-clock studying, so that ROI needs to be explained.
This is where mentors come in. A CNBC/Survey Monkey study found 91% of workers with mentors were satisfied with their jobs.
I’ve (anecdotally) noticed an uptick in mentorships this year, and that may be confirmation bias, but I’d like to think it’s more operations catching onto the value of training. It’s cheaper than onboarding new techs all the time and having to do comebacks because a poorly trained tech made a mistake.
According to that WrenchWay survey, the percentage of diesel techs who agreed their shop does a good job of training new techs and compensating their mentors dropped from 41% to 26% versus the previous poll.
Either way, the state of mentorship is so poor it can only go up, right?
For tips on how to get started, take a look at our July feature on the subject.
We’re going to get back to basics
Talking about new technology and AI is great and all, but we predict our readers will need information on what will help them get through the year, navigating the 2027 prebuy situation, tariffs, and whatever else. So I predict we’ll write about PMs and lean practices, and maintaining universal systems like suspensions and fifth wheel. Sure, I may already have the editorial calendar that says as much, but I have to at least hit on one.
To take a look at what we're planning next year, download our media kit. And if you want to reach out to suggest a topic, person, tool, or business we have to cover in 2025, email me at [email protected].
