Commercial truck analysts at J.D. Power Valuation Services note in their recent Guidelines report that wholesale depreciation outpaced retail in 2016.
Major findings in the free monthly Guidelines report point out:
The retail channel outperformed wholesale in 2016
- 12-month auction depreciation was 30 percent, retail 23 percent
- Year-over-year, trucks brought 30 percent less at auction, 13 percent less at retail
Prices of lighter GVW medium-duty trucks were relatively strong in 2016
- Cabovers and lighter GVW conventionals outperformed heavier conventionals
Great changes in the market the first half of 2017 are not expected
- Returning supply remains substantial, economic changes won't take effect until later in the year
"Based on deliveries of new trucks over the past five years, we expect an increase in returning supply of trucks in 2017," Chris Visser, senior commercial truck analyst at J.D. Power Valuation Services said. "It is likely that OEM's are already stockpiling some quantity of these trucks, keeping them out of the marketplace until conditions potentially change."
Visser went on to say: "General economic conditions should continue to gradually improve in the first two quarters of 2017. After that, drastic changes the new administration plans in the trade and manufacturing sectors should start to create a different landscape...an increase in import tariffs looks very likely, and a shift towards domestic manufacturing should be a longer-term trend. Both of these factors will make raw materials, finished goods, and the cost of production more expensive, limiting expansion. On the other hand, increased domestic manufacturing will improve demand for deliveries of materials, which benefits the trucking industry."
